Trade Analysis and Guidance for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3455 during the first half of the day occurred just as the MACD indicator began to rise from the zero mark, confirming a valid market entry point. As a result, the pair rose by more than 25 points.

Today, the U.S. GDP figures for the first quarter will be released. Investors will scrutinize these numbers to assess the sustainability of economic growth and its impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Equally important is the report on initial jobless claims, a key labor market indicator that reflects how effectively the economy is managing inflation and rate hike pressures.

Additionally, FOMC members Adriana D. Kugler and Austan D. Goolsbee will speak. Their comments on the current economic outlook, inflation trends, and future monetary policy will be closely watched for clues about the Fed's next moves. Investors will pay special attention to how FOMC members assess the balance between fighting inflation and sustaining economic growth.

Any signals of the Fed's readiness to ease monetary policy further could weaken the U.S. dollar.

As for intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound at the entry point of 1.3491 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3522 (thicker green line). At 1.3522, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. GBP strength is likely if U.S. data disappoints. Important: Before buying, confirm that the MACD is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3461 level, while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Expect a rise toward 1.3491 and 1.3522.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3461 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a sharp drop. The main target for sellers will be 1.3416, where I will exit shorts and consider reversing with a 20–25 point rebound. Sellers are unlikely to dominate today. Important: Before selling, confirm that the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3491 level while MACD is in overbought territory. This setup would cap the upside and initiate a downward reversal. Expect a drop toward 1.3461 and 1.3416.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – Entry level for long positions
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level; further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry level for short positions
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level; further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – Use overbought/oversold areas to guide entries

Important Note for Beginner Traders:

New Forex traders must make market entry decisions with extreme caution. It is best to avoid trading during the release of major fundamental reports to prevent exposure to volatile price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could lose your entire deposit quickly—especially if you lack proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear and well-defined trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are usually a losing strategy for intraday traders.