Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1244 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I didn't buy the euro.

In the second half of the day, attention will shift to speeches from FOMC members John Williams and Christopher Waller. Market participants will closely analyze their remarks to assess the likelihood of continued restrictive monetary policy. If their tone suggests a sustained hawkish stance, this may increase pressure on risk-related assets. Conversely, if Williams and Waller signal the need to evaluate incoming data before making further decisions, the market could interpret this as a sign of possible policy easing in the summer—likely weighing on the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I'll rely primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today if the price reaches the 1.1271 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1306. I plan to exit the market at 1.1306 and open a sell position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point movement from the entry point. Relying on euro growth today will be quite difficult. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests the 1.1241 level twice in a row, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and prompt a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1271 and 1.1306 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1241 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1199, where I'll exit the market and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point rebound from the level). Price pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1271 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1241 and 1.1199 can be expected.

Chart Legend

• Thin green line – the entry price for long positions.
• Thick green line – the target price for Take Profit or manual profit-taking; growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price for short positions.
• Thick red line – the target price for Take Profit or manual profit-taking; decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – important to follow overbought/oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with extreme caution. It's best to avoid trading during the release of major fundamental reports to minimize the risk of volatile price swings. If you do decide to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Trading without stop-losses can lead to a rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management or trade large volumes.

Remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan like the one described above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for intraday traders.