The wave structure on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has transformed into a bullish one and continues to maintain that shape. I believe there is no doubt that this transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade policy. Until February 28, when the sharp decline in the U.S. dollar began, the entire wave pattern looked like a convincing downward trend structure, building a corrective wave 2. However, Donald Trump's weekly announcements of various tariffs had their effect. Demand for the U.S. currency started to fall rapidly, and now the entire trend segment that began on January 13 has taken on a bullish impulsive form.

The market didn't even manage to build a convincing wave 2 within this segment. We only saw a minor pullback, smaller than the corrective waves within wave 1. However, the U.S. dollar may continue to weaken unless Donald Trump completely reverses his trade policy—a reversal he is capable of making, as demonstrated on Monday.

The EUR/USD pair remained nearly flat on Tuesday up to the beginning of the U.S. session. Consequently, the wave structure didn't change and couldn't have. At the moment, it appears reasonably convincing; however, Donald Trump could trigger a strong move at any time, and its direction is impossible to predict. Therefore, traders should be extremely cautious with any positions—not just now, but in the coming months as well.

In the complete absence of economic data, the market could have shifted its focus to speeches from ECB, Fed, and Bank of England officials—more than 10 of which are scheduled for today alone. But why should market participants bother? Economic data is being blissfully ignored because it's much easier to analyze a single factor—"Trump and the trade war"—than 5 or 10 different ones. That's why the market isn't engaging in any complex analytical process right now. What the Fed and ECB plan to do in the near future doesn't matter. What changes are expected in the U.S. and Eurozone economies doesn't matter either. The only thing that matters is how the trade war unfolds. Even then, the latest developments could have provoked a stronger demand for the dollar.

At the same time, the Fed continues to project one or two rounds of easing in 2025. I'd like to remind you that this was the projection shown in the "dot plot" chart at the beginning of the year. Due to Trump's trade war, the Fed's expectations regarding interest rates haven't changed at all—only expectations for rising inflation have intensified.

General Conclusions

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. In the near term, the wave structure will depend entirely on the direction of the trade war. This must be kept in mind at all times. Wave 3 of the bullish segment has begun to form, and its targets could extend all the way to the 1.25 range. Reaching those levels will depend solely on Trump's policies and the U.S. stance in global trade. Therefore, I consider buying opportunities with targets above 1.1572, which corresponds to 423.6% on the Fibonacci scale. It's important to remember that de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the bullish trend downward—but currently, there are no wave signals of a reversal.

On the higher wave scale, the structure has clearly transformed into a bullish one. We are likely facing a long-term upward wave sequence, though news directly from Donald Trump could once again turn everything upside down.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to unexpected changes.
2. If you're not confident about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Don't forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.