empty
21.05.2025 12:58 AM
Bitcoin: $115,000 — Next Stop or Bull Trap?

Bitcoin is steadily approaching its all-time high and, according to several analysts, is poised to set a new record. Current levels near $105,000 are more than just numbers — they signal that the crypto asset is regaining strength, reigniting interest from retail traders and institutions. But behind this confident rally lies a web of nuances. Here's a breakdown of why the market believes in $115,000 — and what could go wrong.

Double Top or Double Power?

The scenario bulls fear most—the formation of a double top—has become a hot topic. This technical pattern usually signals a market reversal, but current on-chain metrics tell a different story.

According to several experts, the Bitcoin Fundamental Index (BFI) has remained stable for nearly a year, since August 2024, indicating no signs of a looming crash. Even during the February–March correction, when a major pullback was widely expected, BFI held steady in neutral territory.

This is crucial: on-chain data often serves as a "black box" of market sentiment. It's immune to hype and emotion — it's just raw stats: wallet addresses, volume, transactions, and liquidity.

If the data shows that investors aren't rushing to take profits, it means they're not expecting a reversal. This makes the double-top scenario look more like a mirage than reality.

This image is no longer relevant

Calculated Breakout: The Technical Case for $115,000

Some crypto traders point to a clear technical breakout on the four-hour chart. The breach of key resistance injected momentum into the market and set a new target of $115,000.

This isn't just a "round number" headline — it's a zone marked by previous clusters of orders and attempted reversals. Now, that area is less of a resistance and more of a target.

Markets react not to emotions but to zones with heavy liquidity. Right now, $115,000 has as much magnetism as the $100,000 region did a month ago. A break above this could trigger a cascade of short liquidations, fueling a short-term rally.

Stock Market Tailwinds: S&P 500 as Rocket Fuel

Bitcoin's upward momentum is still closely tied to the S&P 500. That's nothing new, but this correlation is gaining relevance again. As long as the S&P is printing new local highs, crypto feels like it has permission to climb.

This is especially notable given the current environment of monetary easing: investors are rotating back into risk assets, with Bitcoin often at the top of the list.

However, this correlation is a double-edged sword. Any turbulence in equities could derail the crypto rally. So while the S&P acts like a propeller, traders must stay alert to macroeconomic headlines.

ETFs Back on Top: $667M in One Day Isn't Just a Number

One of the strongest catalysts behind the recent surge has been U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs. On Monday, net inflows totaled $667.4 million — a two-week high. Notably, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone brought in $306 million, signaling the renewed interest of institutional capital.

Why does this matter? The ETF market is a thermometer of big money sentiment. Their participation means more than just chasing price—it reflects confidence in the asset's fundamentals: strategy, liquidity, and regulatory clarity.

Wisconsin, Are You In? Institutions Are Circling Again

Interestingly, even traditionally conservative entities like the Wisconsin State Pension Fund are reconsidering Bitcoin. After fully exiting in the first quarter due to low returns, market conditions have shifted, and the second quarter could see them re-entering.

This is critical to Bitcoin's institutional maturity. When retirement funds return, it's no longer just speculation — a vote of confidence in the market's stability.

What's Next: Short-Term Bets and Long-Term Potential

The near-term scenario is clear: if the technical breakout holds and the S&P remains calm, Bitcoin will likely test $115,000. In the short term, the market looks overheated, but not broken. And with BFI holding steady, there's no reason yet to expect capitulation.

In the long run, everything hinges on institutional interest and the global macro backdrop. If U.S. interest rates fall, equity markets extend their rally, and crypto arbitrage stays profitable, then $120,000+ by year-end is a realistic possibility.

Ekaterina Kiseleva,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Ekaterina Kiseleva
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 18

Bitcoin returned to the $121,000 mark today, but failed to hold above it. Ethereum broke through the $3,600 level. In addition to the fact that all necessary cryptocurrency-related bills passed

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:42 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Solana has the potential to continue its rally to the next resistance level on Friday, July 18, 2025.

Solana – Friday, July 18, 2025. With a Golden Cross condition between the EMA (50) and the EMA (200) as well as the RSI (14) in the neutral-bullish area, there

Arief Makmur 07:02 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Bitcoin Forecast for July 18, 2025

Yesterday, Bitcoin tested the support level of 117,730 with a long lower shadow on the daily candle and closed the day above the inner line of the green price channel

Laurie Bailey 04:46 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 17

Bitcoin attempted several times yesterday to break above the 120,000 level but failed to succeed. Ethereum, on the other hand, completed its task and easily jumped from 3,100 to 3,300

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:05 2025-07-17 UTC+2

Some market makers fix profits

Meanwhile, as Bitcoin rebounded to the $119,000 level, some major players in the cryptocurrency market were quick to take profits after recent large price movements. Investment firm Ark Invest

Jakub Novak 13:22 2025-07-16 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 16

Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a modest correction but overall remained above the $117,000 mark, clearly indicating that its bullish prospects remain intact — it just needs a catalyst. Ethereum climbed back

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:51 2025-07-16 UTC+2

Bitcoin in limbo

Bitcoin buyers appear to be somewhat confused, as the FOMO currently dominating the market could backfire on those trying to jump on the "last train", — which, in reality

Jakub Novak 15:34 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Crypto week

While Bitcoin and Ethereum are undergoing a correction and doing so rather effectively, lawmakers and cryptocurrency advocates in the United States are preparing for one of the most important weeks

Jakub Novak 11:19 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 15

Bitcoin has dropped from its all-time high of $123,000 and is currently trading at $117,000, which only increases its appeal. Ethereum has also fallen back below the 3,000-dollar level, after

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:31 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Bitcoin outpaces Amazon in terms of market cap

Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high near $122,000, surpassing Amazon in market capitalization. This event is undoubtedly a landmark moment in the history of cryptocurrencies and traditional finance

Jakub Novak 10:52 2025-07-14 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.