While stock indices remain stagnant, gold consolidates near its highs, and Bitcoin is once again capturing attention. The crypto market's flagship has approached the psychologically important $100,000 level, not on hype or emotion but fueled by fundamental shifts in global economics and politics. Is this a confident step toward $120,000 and beyond, or the last push before a deep correction?
Not Powell, But the Treasury: Who's Really Powering the Market?
While commentators remain fixated on the Federal Reserve's every move, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes offers a different take: forget Powell and pay attention to the U.S. Treasury. According to Hayes, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is orchestrating the rebound in risk assets, including Bitcoin.
There's plenty of evidence to support this view. The decision to keep rates steady at 4.25–4.5% may have signaled stability, but the actual catalyst has been the Treasury's actions: issuing short-term bonds, releasing liquidity from reverse repo accounts, and hinting at potential buybacks.
In essence, the market has been injected with fresh dollars, and as usual, that money chases the highest yield. In an environment of dollar weakness and limited supply, Bitcoin is the clear beneficiary.
Institutional Money Is Back: $142 Million Is No Joke
Nothing illustrates the shift in sentiment more clearly than institutional behavior. A net inflow of $142 million into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs in a single day signals that Wall Street is getting back in the game.
These are not meme token chasers or hype-driven speculators. They see the fundamentals: macro stability, a U.S. political shift favoring crypto development, and disorientation in traditional markets. BTC is emerging as a portfolio anchor in a world of currency wars and ballooning debt.
$100K Is Just the Start? Technical Levels Say So
Bitcoin remains firmly above its 50-day moving average ($95,715) and is approaching the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $100,756 — a level that could mark the shift from accumulation to breakout.
A break above $99,824 opens the door to $102,501 and eventually $109,000. Technical indicators agree: MACD is in positive territory, volumes are rising, and short liquidations are fueling the rally.
The market doesn't appear overheated. Volatility remains historically low, and the correlation with the S&P 500 is around 0.9, suggesting macro factors dominate, and we're not in a localized bubble.
Bitcoin in Politics: Crypto as a Tool of Geopolitical Power
The U.S. has realized that digital assets aren't just an innovation but a new battleground for financial supremacy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Congressional statement that "America must lead in digital assets" is no mere slogan — it's a strategy.
Two key bills are on the horizon:
- Market Structure Bill: Reduces uncertainty for institutions
- GENIUS Stablecoin Act: Establishes standards and oversight for stablecoins
Passing these laws would make the U.S. a leader in crypto infrastructure and provide legal clarity for institutions investing in BTC. While Democrats are hesitant, the overall political direction is clear: cryptocurrency is becoming part of national strategy.
Short Liquidations Hint at Breakout
According to CoinGlass, $300 million in short positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours — $114.5 million in Bitcoin alone. It's the second major short squeeze in recent weeks, and such events typically precede rallies.
Why? Because liquidating shorts doesn't just move price — it changes sentiment from fear to greed. Whale behavior confirms the trend: large investors are buying again.
Dollar Devaluation? That's Music to Bitcoin's Ears
Hayes argues that it all comes down to how many dollars are in circulation. The more dollars, the higher Bitcoin climbs. This is the essence of today's macroeconomics. U.S. spending is rising—on defense, social programs, and debt interest. Borrowing and money printing are now central.
If the Treasury continues to flood the economy with liquidity while foreign interest in Treasuries fades, the dollar will weaken—a massive long-term tailwind for BTC.
$1 Million by 2028? More Than a Fantasy
Hayes's bold forecast — Bitcoin at $1,000,000 by 2028 — may sound sensational, but the logic is clear: America's debt burden will force money printing, and Bitcoin has a fixed supply.
Add in growing institutional demand, adoption in emerging markets, and BTC's transformation into a macroeconomic indicator, and $1 million becomes a question of when, not if.
What's Next for Bitcoin? Short and Long Term
- Short Term (weeks): BTC could test $102,000–$105,000 if macro stability and ETF demand persist.
- Medium Term (by end of 2025): If legislation passes and Treasury policy remains supportive, $120,000 is a base case. Altcoins will likely gain traction.
- Long Term (by 2028): In a world of fiat turmoil and mounting debt, the $1M target becomes not a dream, but the new financial reality.
