Analysis of Trades and Recommendations for Trading the Euro

A test of the 1.0298 level coincided with the MACD indicator beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the validity of the entry point for buying the euro. However, this resulted in only a 10-point increase.

The second half of the day will be entirely focused on important U.S. statistics. It is crucial to note that the labor market is one of the key indicators for assessing the state of the U.S. economy. If job creation rates are high and unemployment levels decrease, this will confirm sustained economic growth, potentially strengthening the dollar. In such a case, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current interest rate policy, creating additional challenges for currencies like the euro.

On the other hand, if the statistics are less optimistic, the dollar may weaken, increasing interest in the euro. Investors looking for more attractive assets might shift their focus to the euro, strengthening it as the dollar weakens.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the 1.0314 level (green line on the chart), targeting an increase to the 1.0347 level. At 1.0347, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected after weak unemployment data.Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0295 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.0314 and 1.0347 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.0295 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0261 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair may return after strong reports.Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0314 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0295 and 1.0261 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – the entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – the target price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – the target price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, focus on overbought and oversold areas.

Important:

Beginner traders on the Forex market must exercise extreme caution when making trading decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of critical fundamental reports to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using proper money management and trading with large volumes.

Remember: Successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.