empty
02.05.2025 01:03 AM
Bitcoin: Who's Behind the New Accumulation and Where Is the Price Heading?

Amid a steady outflow of coins from exchanges, renewed futures market activity, and a rise in short-term holders, the world's largest cryptocurrency lays the groundwork for a potential move that could shape the market for months.

Scenarios vary—from euphoria to stagnation—but all require careful analysis. Let's focus on the key questions: what's happening, who is behind the current accumulation, and what should traders expect in the coming weeks?

Greed Index Engaged: Short-Term Holders Return to the Scene

If the crypto market has learned anything from history, it's to pay attention to short-term holders. They've twice predicted major Bitcoin moves in recent years—once before the ETF-fueled rally and again ahead of the Trump inauguration-driven spike.

Today, CryptoQuant analysts are again observing heightened activity among those holding Bitcoin for less than a week. This isn't just noise—it's a structural signal. In the past, an increase in such addresses has always preceded rallies.

We're seeing the same pattern now: weak hands are starting to buy in. For seasoned traders, this isn't a reason for emotion—it's a warning. The market is entering a reaccumulation phase, and a sharp impulse move may soon follow.

This image is no longer relevant

Accumulation Grows: Whales and Institutions Awaken

A total of 8,000 BTC has been withdrawn from Coinbase. That's not a drop in the ocean—that's $763 million in liquidity pulled off exchanges. This isn't retail greed—it's institutional investors and large private funds accumulating off-exchange. According to analysts, such moves have historically aligned with the beginning of bull market phases.

In other words, Bitcoin isn't just rising—it's being bought to hold. Institutional capital is back in the game for the first time since January. This is also confirmed by realized capitalization rising to a record $882.2 billion—a metric based on the actual cost at which coins were acquired, not the market price.

Futures Fuel the Market: Binance Sees $2.2B Growth in Open Interest

Amid these developments, Bitcoin futures open interest on Binance has surged from $7.5 billion to $9.7 billion—a 29% increase in three weeks. These aren't just numbers—they indicate traders are positioning for leveraged bets. In 2021, a similar rise coincided with a breakout to the $60,000–$65,000 range. Today, the setup looks familiar but has higher targets: $100,000 and, in case of acceleration, $110,000 and beyond.

CryptoQuant emphasizes that futures activity is rising even as spot market supply is shrinking. In an environment of rising demand, this creates a compressed spring effect. A single trigger—whether positive macro data or a muted geopolitical reaction—could send the price surging in a single day.

Crowd Psychology and Whale Behavior: When to Expect the Impulse?

If Bitcoin were a living organism, it's now showing high adaptability. Investors spooked by March–April uncertainty are back in accumulation mode. The on-chain momentum index has reached 0.8, meaning most holders are now in profit, but we're not yet at the phase of mass selling.

CryptoQuant outlines three scenarios:

  1. Bullish Breakout — repeating 2017 and 2021 patterns, where a surge followed on-chain consolidation. Target: $150,000–$175,000.
  2. Consolidation — trading in a $90,000–$110,000 range until autumn. A scenario favorable to institutions, offering time to accumulate.
  3. Correction — if the index falls below 0.75, a drop to $70,000 is possible. This would trap weak hands and create fresh entry points for whales.

Given the current structure, the first two scenarios remain the most probable. This is due to the lack of panic selling, steady coin outflows from exchanges, and reduced retail pressure.

Price at $96,000: Approaching a New Psychological Threshold

Bitcoin has spent three days testing the $96,000–$96,500 zone, which is the highest level since February. Meanwhile, support at $93,000 has held firm against seller pressure multiple times, indicating strong buying interest behind the scenes, likely from algorithm-driven funds.

Suppose BTC consolidates above $97,000; the path to $100,000 opens. This isn't just a round number—it's a psychological milestone. Once breached, FOMO could grip both retail and institutional players. At that point, the market flips—and we could see a "second January" with new highs.

What Traders Should Do Now

For intraday trading, two levels matter: $93,000 as support and $97,000 as resistance. A daily close above the latter would be a strong technical signal to enter long positions.

For swing and position traders, the key zone is $90,000–$92,000 as an entry on pullbacks. A breakout above $100,000 with confirmation opens the door to $110,000–$115,000 within weeks.

Conclusion: The Market Awaits a Trigger — and It Could Come Suddenly

Bitcoin is once again at a tipping point. On one side are accumulation, exchange withdrawals, and rising futures activity. On the other, uncertainty and global volatility. One macroeconomic surprise or a major investor announcement could be the trigger.

Ekaterina Kiseleva,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Ekaterina Kiseleva
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Crypto market: buyers setting tone amid trade deals in anticipation of Fed's status quo

The crypto market's Fear & Greed index currently stands at 73 out of 100, indicating a Greed zone and strong buying interest from market participants. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH)

Jurij Tolin 14:58 2025-07-29 UTC+2

Demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum remains strong

As we observe corrections in the cryptocurrency market, there are always those who take advantage of the moment and actively buy up discounted assets. According to analytical think tanks, many

Jakub Novak 09:28 2025-07-29 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 29

Bitcoin corrected by the end of yesterday, testing the $117,500 level, but is already trading above $119,000 today, indicating sustained high demand even during minor pullbacks. Ethereum has also recovered

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:42 2025-07-29 UTC+2

Trading tips for crypto market on July 28 (North American session)

Bitcoin has once again failed in its attempt to test and consolidate above the $120,000 mark, currently dipping back below $119,000. Ethereum has also slightly retreated after attempting to break

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:04 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Bitcoin quickly regained ground

Last Friday, I noted that Bitcoin had touched the $115,000 level, and during today's Asian trading session, we already saw a test of the resistance near $119,800. This highlights

Jakub Novak 09:58 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 28

Bitcoin has recovered all of last week's losses and is now just one step away from the $120,000 mark. Ethereum has also seen significant growth, surpassing the $3,900 mark. There

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:29 2025-07-28 UTC+2

The Death Cross EMA condition on Solana confirms that sellers remain dominant despite the potential for temporary strength, Friday, July 25, 2025.

Solana – Friday, July 25, 2025 With the EMA in a Death Cross condition and the RSI (14) in a Neutral Bearish condition, Solana cryptocurrency indicates that sellers are still

Arief Makmur 12:03 2025-07-25 UTC+2

The appearance of divergence in the RSI on Litecoin indicates the potential for limited upside up to its pivot level on Friday, July 25, 2025.

Litecoin – Friday, July 25, 2025 The appearance of divergence between the RSI(14) indicator and Litecoin's price movement indicates the potential for limited upside. The RSI(14) remains in a neutral

Arief Makmur 12:03 2025-07-25 UTC+2

Bitcoin plunges to $115,000

Sooner or later, this had to happen. After Bitcoin had made brave attempts to break above $120,000, the price dropped to nearly $115,000. In fact, this is nothing surprising

Jakub Novak 09:41 2025-07-25 UTC+2

Tether confidently advances toward entry into the US market

Bitcoin continues to trade within the 116,500–120,000 channel, showing solid volatility. Ethereum, however, is performing significantly worse following a recent decline in spot ETF inflows. Meanwhile, yesterday Tether CEO Paolo

Jakub Novak 10:07 2025-07-24 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.