Analysis of Wednesday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair closely followed the movements of the EUR/USD pair, further confirming that the current situation hinges on the US dollar. The fate of the US dollar entirely depends on Donald Trump's will. Almost all market movements are, in one way or another, triggered by statements from the US President. It may seem like we constantly talk only about Trump, but what's the point in discussing other factors that do not influence price movements?

Yesterday, April's business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors were published in both the UK and the US. In the UK, the indices were frankly weak, but the British pound held up quite well during the European session and showed no desire to fall. Similarly, weak US business activity data did not prevent the dollar from rising during the US session.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On Wednesday's 5-minute timeframe, several more or less accurate trading signals were formed, but profiting from them was extremely difficult as the price kept changing direction. As we previously warned, confusion and chaos persist in the market. The price rebounded four times from the 1.3289–1.3297 area but failed to resume the upward trend. After breaking through this area, we also didn't see a significant decline in the British pound, although this could continue today.

Trading Strategy for Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair could have started a downward trend long ago, but the market continues to focus solely on Trump, so the pound keeps creeping upward. One day of decline is not a sign of a new downtrend. Therefore, the future movements of the pair depend solely on the US president and his decisions and nothing else.

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair may trade to the downside for a while as the first signs of easing tension in the global trade war have started to appear. However, for the dollar to show significant growth, there needs to be a continuous stream of news pointing to de-escalating the trade conflict.

Trading is currently possible using the 5-minute timeframe levels: 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3145–1.3167, 1.3203, 1.3289–1.3297, 1.3365, 1.3421–1.3440, 1.3488, 1.3537, 1.3580–1.3598. No major reports are scheduled in the UK on Thursday, while several interesting reports will be released in the US, which the market may ignore. Trump did not make any high-profile statements overnight, so the market may move more calmly for a while.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.